Lehigh Times

With inflation rates at historic highs and the value of the dollar continuing to decrease, many economists predict a dark future for the nation's economy.

Retail and professional investors both have a negative outlook of the country's economic future, a report this week from the World Economic Forum said. A Bloomberg Markets Live Survey of 525 respondents done between March 29 and April 1 showed that 48% of investors expect the U.S. to enter a recession in 2023, 21% expect it to occur in 2024 and 15% expect it to happen as early as 2022.

"PPI is in at 11.4% for March, this forecasts an even higher number of future inflation and certainly the beginning of a recession," Cook County Illinois Commissioner Sean Morrison tweeted this week. "The reckless Biden executive orders and policies issued since day one, are the main contributors to most of this. #selfinflicted."

On April 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its March 2022 report that showed an 8.5% all-items annual increase. This is the largest increase since 1981.

Deutsche Bank was the first major firm on Wall Street to predict a recession coming, a recent Fox Business report said. Economists are forecasting a mild recession starting in the final quarter of 2023 that will continue into the first quarter of 2024. Unemployment is forecasted to peak above 5%.

"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing," Mark Luzzetti and other Deutsche Bank economists said in an analyst note quoted by Fox Business. "Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession."

Bank of America has also predicted a recession, a separate Fox Business report said this week. BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett noted that surging consumer prices along with aggressiveness by the central bank could lead to the recession; adding, "'inflation shock' worsening, 'rates shock' just beginning, 'recession shock' coming."

A recent Wall Street Journal poll conducted March 2-7 surveying 1,500 general-election voters showed that 63% disapproved of how President Joe Biden was handling inflation. Of those surveyed, 47% felt the Republican Party was best for getting inflation under control, 30% said the Democratic Party was best to do it, and 14% said neither.

Opinion Contributor Liz Peek noted that the last four recessions have had sharp hikes in energy prices beforehand, a recent report by The Hill said. She added that "$120 oil is a red flag," and the Federal Reserve's only choice of action to control skyrocketing prices is to increase interest rates to slow growth.

Pennsylvania's current interest rates are 5.05% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, 4.28% for a 15-year fixed mortgage and 3.75% for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage, a Friday Bankrate.com report said.